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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 01, 2010 01:14PM

According to BP the average blowout preventer is rated to handle 15,000 psi, which is an amazing amount of pressure. Doing the math for their 21" diameter well casing that comes out to a maximum capacity to withstand about 2.6 million pounds of force. They don't say what kind of pressure this particular well is producing but if it's even 1/4 of that then that's like the weight of 300 fully loaded dump trucks for the BOP to withstand. I say work with it.

[www.bp.com]

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 01, 2010 10:07PM

PB says they're not exactly sure what pressure they're dealing with from this well but must have some idea... Maybe they are about to find out exactly and will share this. Exactly what kind of natural forces are we dealing with?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/01/2010 10:19PM by loeve.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 01, 2010 10:40PM

Thanks people for all the very interesting information!

According to BP, this next plan will not stop the flow of oil, but - if it works - it should reduce the flow until the final fix in (gasp!) August.

If it doesn't work, then the flow will likely be worse, because the new opening will be cut below the crimp in the line.

This is all very sad, very horrifying and maddening, but not surprising. Why should these large polluting industries be interested in preserving our environment?

If we use the oil, then we are responsible for making these companies comply with the strictest regulations and the most advanced protective devices available. "Best Available Technology" should be a requirement stated in every Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for every drill rig.

And yet, the very opposite has happened. Even though the National Environmental Policy Act requires an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for each new drill-rig operation, many of the deep-water rigs - including the Deepwater Horizon rig - have been exempted from any EIS requirement.

They are exempted on the grounds that the rigs will have "no significant environmental impact". Meanwhile, new government figures estimate that Deepwater Horizon is presently dumping at least 12,000 barrels of oil into the gulf every day.

Thank goodness the moratoreum is back in place. The current standards will be reviewed. But it's up to us - no one else - to demand that if these rigs are allowed to continue their operations, they must have the best available technology in place and be subjected to the most rigorous inspections and safety regulations.

If we don't consider such regulations to be a national priority, then we deserve exactly what we get! The great shame of it is that so many innocent critters did not deserve the tremendous destruction of their lives and habitats that will ensue.

The petition offered by Jgunn above is a good place to start!

Canada requires that relief wells must be drilled simultaneously along with the main well so that in the case of an emergency, the relief well can immediately be put in place.

Of course, I'd personally like to see drilling ceased completely, but realistically, that probably won't happen for some time to come.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/01/2010 10:45PM by suncloud.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 02, 2010 02:07PM

..so BP is drilling two relief wells beneith a mile of water than another mile (and counting) of rock --

"Work on the first relief well, which started on May 2, continues and it has currently reached a depth of 12,090 feet. Work on the second relief well, which started on May 16, had reached a depth of 8,576 feet before drilling was temporarily suspended on May 26. Drilling operations on the second relief well resumed on May 30. Both wells are still estimated to take around three months to complete from commencement of drilling." [www.bp.com]

..oil is lighter than water and a lot lighter than rock so the pressure must be enormous. Once the relief wells are operational it will take how much time to relieve the pressure? They don't say? Maybe they're not sure.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: juicerkatz ()
Date: June 02, 2010 04:39PM

...and now the diamond-edged saw is stuck in the pipe...

I am starting to wonder about the competence of these engineers. I know this "accident" is an all new experience for them, but geez, can't they foresee anything? sad smiley

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 03, 2010 03:54AM

Thanks Loeve for the info on the relief wells. Good question! How much time will it take once the relief wells are drilled? Yes, and what if both relief wells miss the mark?

I agree Juicer. It would almost be funny, if it weren't so godawful sad!

So now they'll be using a pair of "shears" instead of the saw. My understanding is they don't expect to get the cut they wanted, so the "cap" won't fit right. They'll have to alter the cap or try the "top hat" approach (Please correct me anyone if I'm wrong on this, and/or add whatever).

My husband builds stuff. Yesterday he said we don't need any more engineers on this. We need a good plumber!

Seriously.

Seems like they could be utilizing those bolts under where they're cutting to tie something down over the leak......?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/03/2010 03:57AM by suncloud.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Jgunn ()
Date: June 03, 2010 05:17AM

yea why cant they tie a big rubber baloon over it an suck the oil out of the baloon/

at least it would be contained within the rubber balloon

how hard would it be to make a big giant rubber baloon grinning smiley

...Jodi, the banana eating buddhist

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Curator ()
Date: June 03, 2010 05:51AM

pressure is way to strong down there for rubber unfortunately...or any other balloon-ish material... even if they have something strong enough to handle the pressure, they cant pump it out fast enough, most of the oil still escapes...their only option is a permanent solid fix, or permanently closing it, which attempt #1 at that already failed... some people are saying to blow it up... that could work, or make things even worse...its a gamble...

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: juicerkatz ()
Date: June 03, 2010 11:28AM

suncloud -

You're right, it is almost funny at this point...


Years ago when I was working my way through mechanic/tech school, I also worked at the local Nuclear plant to supplement my income. It is amazing to see how big industry will cut corners and put "band-aid" patches on equipment instead of fixing it properly.

As you may imagine, there is a lot of large dia. piping in a nuke plant, with many valves/fittings/junctions; whenever a leak occurred anywhere in the system, if it wasn't under high pressure or a radioactive leak, guess what the fix was?

A funnel was wired under the leak with a length of clear plastic tubing that ran into the nearest floor drain. I always that that was an odd way of fixing leaks in a nuke plant...guess some of those guys now work for BP...


Jodi -

wonder if BP could contact Trojan with your suggestion? I see they come in all different sizes...maybe they could get something that would fit...grinning smiley Now that's what I call "thinking outside the BOX", lol...grinning smiley



suncloud Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks Loeve for the info on the relief wells.
> Good question! How much time will it take once
> the relief wells are drilled? Yes, and what if
> both relief wells miss the mark?
>
> I agree Juicer. It would almost be funny, if it
> weren't so godawful sad!
>
> So now they'll be using a pair of "shears" instead
> of the saw. My understanding is they don't expect
> to get the cut they wanted, so the "cap" won't fit
> right. They'll have to alter the cap or try the
> "top hat" approach (Please correct me anyone if
> I'm wrong on this, and/or add whatever).
>
> My husband builds stuff. Yesterday he said we
> don't need any more engineers on this. We need a
> good plumber!
>
> Seriously.
>
> Seems like they could be utilizing those bolts
> under where they're cutting to tie something down
> over the leak......?



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/03/2010 11:30AM by juicerkatz.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Jgunn ()
Date: June 03, 2010 03:54PM

yea katz we should present them with that idea grinning smiley

ya know i cant help but think how stupid it is for them to break up the oil with dispersants, wouldnt it be easier to solidify it an remove it

rather then busting it up into a bazillion particles that just get lost in the oceanfor everything else to choke on

these people jus tmake no sense to me !

...Jodi, the banana eating buddhist

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Tamukha ()
Date: June 03, 2010 05:56PM

The object now, and I am not making this up, is to somehow pinch the top of the pipe below the blowout preventor closed. Way deep down underwater. With the oil still gushing at 8,000 PSI or whatever. And they are not expecting that this will cause the pipe to burst at the seams. My sixth grade Tri County Science Fair project implemented more physics. God Almighty.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: juicerkatz ()
Date: June 03, 2010 08:57PM

It seems many of their ideas have been cooked up by Bart Simpson...or maybe Ralph Wiggum...


Tamukha Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The object now, and I am not making this up, is to
> somehow pinch the top of the pipe below the
> blowout preventor closed. Way deep down
> underwater. With the oil still gushing at 8,000
> PSI or whatever. And they are not expecting that
> this will cause the pipe to burst at the seams.
> My sixth grade Tri County Science Fair project
> implemented more physics. God Almighty.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 04, 2010 05:27PM

Talk about lack of foresight, now the rubber compression seal that was to fit over the riser doesn't work because the pipe is too distorted from the original collapse of the riser and subsequent cutting.

The rubber balloon cap (with a heater to stop the freezing up) and a strong vacuum oil recovery connection is sounding better every day. Neoprene rubber is good stuff.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 04, 2010 11:21PM

Thank goodness BP finally has a cap on the thing!

That's the good news, and we'll be so fortunate if this cap can do what it's supposed to do.

The bad news: Lots of oil is still coming out while they gradually close the extra valves; and even when the valves are closed, there will still be oil leaking from the cap.

An optimistic estimate is that the cap will enable BP to siphon off around 80% of the spilling oil. So how much oil will still be leaking?

Before installing the cap, the previous estimate of 12,000 - 19,000 barrels/day was based only on oil observed at the ocean surface. Another committee was assigned to provide an estimate based on underwater videos of the leak. Their estimate came to as much as 25,000 barrels/day.

In addition to whatever was spilling when those estimates were made, BP increased the oil flow by 20% when they cut the pipe. So even if the cap can capture 80% of the current flow, there will still likely be several thousand barrels of oil spilling into the ocean everyday, until August or whenever they're able to kill the well.

I personally will not feel optimistic until this is all cleaned up and we've figured out a way to live like the rest of the critters - without oil, coal, or nuclear power!

Meanwhile, tar balls are beginning to wash up on Florida beaches.

Most heartbreaking of all are the videos of birds struggling to survive as they're emersed in the oil. I'm grateful for the heros who are rescuing and cleaning the birds.

I liked Jodi's idea of providing a petition, so here's a petition from Oceana (check the ongoing tally of barrels of oil in the Gulf):

[na.oceana.org]

And a petition from Greenpeace:

[secure3.convio.net]



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/04/2010 11:31PM by suncloud.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 05, 2010 09:38PM

According to reports on CNN coming from BP and Admiral Allen, the new cap has syphoned off about 30% of the oil gusher - or 250,000 gallons - during the last 24 hours.

That would mean about 20,000 barrels total coming from the gusher, with about 6,000 barrels syphoned off, and about 14,000 barrels leaking into the ocean.

BP is still attempting to syphon more oil by closing the valves in the cap. If they can close all the valves successfully, they could possibly syphon up to 90% of the oil - or approx. 18,000 barrels syphoned per day, with 2,000 barrels leaking per day (until the well is killed).

The existence of underwater plumes has now been verified using lab tests conducted by researchers at the University of South Florida. Some are 6 miles wide, their length unclear. There are concerns that the underwater plumes could reach the Forida Key's living-coral reefs (third largest coral reefs in the world), and kill them by suffocation.

BP has been denying the existence of the plumes. Are the plumes being created as a result of using the dispersant?

Today was the first report I heard of the possibility of the oil flow reaching the shores of Europe. Seems far-fetched, but that's the direction of the ocean's current after moving up the US East Coast.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 06/05/2010 09:42PM by suncloud.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 06, 2010 07:15PM

suncloud Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> According to reports on CNN coming from BP and
> Admiral Allen, the new cap has syphoned off about
> 30% of the oil gusher - or 250,000 gallons -
> during the last 24 hours.
>
> That would mean about 20,000 barrels total coming
> from the gusher, with about 6,000 barrels syphoned
> off, and about 14,000 barrels leaking into the
> ocean.
>
> BP is still attempting to syphon more oil by
> closing the valves in the cap...

That's great info, statistics not easy to come by in this disaster.

I'm not quite sure BP really wants to close all the valves on the BOP. After collecting a little data I figure the pressure from the oil pushing up on the blowout preventer is about 2.3 million pounds, greater than the weight of the space shuttle fully loaded with fuel --

Well depth - 18,360' (5000' water, 13,360' sediment and rock)
Well diameter - 21" (18 3/4" inside diameter +/-)
Well cross section area - 276 in2 (area = pi r2)
Crude oil density - 61 lbs./ft3
Sedimentary rock density - 150 lbs./ft3 +/-
Pressure at BOP - 8230 psi (pressure difference between rock and oil over 13,360')

They had tested the annular preventer (at 10,000psi) which was supposed to seal around the 7" drill pipe, which was extended thru the BOP at the time of the accident as part of a cement plugging installation near the top of the well casing. They were having a party getting ready to pick up and move to the next drill site. The annular ring seal obviously failed. One theory is that this failure tyed with the cement plug failing and sending chunks of cement up into the BOP made it difficult for the backup rams to pinch the pipe shut.

It would have been much worse had the BOP been lost, the 21" casing large enough to spill 50,000 gallons/day into the gulf had not the BOP had some restricting effect.

"foobius says:
May 1, 2010 at 7:32 pm
I listened to the Levin recording. Assuming it is accurate:

They had finished cementing. They closed the annular preventer (basically a big bag that seals around a drill pipe if there is one, allowing rotation and insertion/removal of pipe while closed, or plugs off the hole if there is no pipe). They pressure tested the BOPs. The BOPs passed.

They were preparing to detach the riser from the SSA and move on after running a temporary cement plug. They displaced the drilling fluid in the riser with sea water (the drilling fluid must be recovered). They opened the annular preventer. The well kicked and pushed upward. Fluid began coming out of the riser. They tried closing the BOPs but couldn’t. Fluid flow increased until the stream was hitting the top of the mast. Finally, no drilling fluid remained in the hole and the well was freely flowing. Gas flowed over the rig and then detonated.

So, why? Likely:

The down hole pressure is opposed by the pressure of the drilling fluid column, accumulating all the way from surface. Heavier drilling fluid (greater density) in the hole increases the pressure gradient from surface to bottom. They displaced the fluid from the riser, which would have changed the pressure gradient over 5000 ft, reducing the final pressure at the bottom of the hole and allowing formation pressure to exceed the drilling fluid pressure, allowing formation fluid influx (which also can dilute the drilling fluid and further reduce weight) and causing the kick. The normal procedure to kill a kick is to pump high-weight kill mud into the hole at the location of the kick influx, usually at the bottom. If they didn’t have any pipe in the hole, that wouldn’t have been possible. They could have slipped pipe in past the closed annular preventer, as is intended by its design, and eventually killed the kick while using the BOP choke system to control pressure. If the annular wouldn’t close nor the rams, there was no hope.

If the calculated required mud weight was wrong, the displacement of the riser fluid could have lowered the pressure enough to allow the kick. The in-hole mud weight used while cementing should have been higher than drilling mud which needs to be close to formation pressure to optimize drilling rates. The formation could have opened to a higher pressure area due to changes in pressure differential. The cementing job could have used the wrong mud weight or otherwise diluted the drillng fluid.

The only likely solution now is a relief well that will drill in to the old well at the pressure zone and pump in high-weight mud to kill the flow. The riser cannot be “crimped” to stop the flow since it is thin-walled, light tubing only designed to conduct fluid from sea floor to surface and not to carry any great pressure.

Kicks occur all over the world every day and are usually controlled with little fuss, using standard, well-understood procedures. I would have thought that there would have been a pressure rise below the BOPs which should have been noted."

[www.rawfoodsupport.com]



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/06/2010 07:29PM by loeve.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 08, 2010 02:16AM

..the correct link to the above quote -- [wattsupwiththat.com]

BP does have a long term containment plan --

[www.bp.com]

The Q4000 platform is going to connect pipes to the BOP mud returns which will be used to draw additional oil from the well.

A new riser will be installed off to the side of the well to make it easier to quick disconnect for hurricanes then hook back up afterwards.

There are several theories why the blowout preventer failed. Maybe they'll salvage and disect it some day, soon hopefully so we can learn from it --


[search.aol.com]

*This BOP illustration isn't the model used in this disaster, that model maybe a Schumaker sp? or Cameron depending on who's blog is read...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/08/2010 02:22AM by loeve.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 08, 2010 10:17AM

..so it looks like Cameron is the BOP manufacturer. There hydraulic rams once activated are supposed to shear thru the well casing and any drill pipe within the casing, then be reinforced by the well bore pressure (8000psi +/-?) in case the hydraulics fail --



[www.c-a-m.com]

I read something somewhere suggesting this BOP is not a fail-safe device. It needs to be operated correctly and maintained, issues raised on both counts in this disaster.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 08, 2010 01:24PM

..the image above is of a "double" preventer. The Horizon floating platform carried with them --

"BOP 2 x Cameron Type TL 18¾in 15K double preventers; 1 x Cameron Type TL 18¾in 15K single preventer; 1 x Cameron DWHC 18¾in 15K wellhead connector"

[www.deepwater.com]

I'd hope they had at least a double blowout preventer on this difficult well though they also had a "single" as part of their inventory onboard...

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 09, 2010 01:03AM

Amazing research loeve! Thanks so much! It's frustrating that so many questions remain unanswered. Plus the technology is difficult for some of us (like me); but hopefully the more information we have, the more we'll understand!

My impression is that the operators were having trouble with this well before it blew; and despite that, they were generally lackadaisical and penny-pinching about a situation they never had sufficient technology to control in the first place.

I'm getting the following story third hand, so definitely not sure of total accuracy: A couple of workers from the BP rig came to Hilo on vacation a day or so after it blew. They said they were the last ones to leave the rig. They'd just finished conducting several days inspection underwater. They said they'd been complaining about problems (leaks) that needed to be fixed, but the managers were ignoring their concerns. They said the fumes at the surface of the rig were really bad because of the leaks. Someone lit a cigarette, and that's when the rig exploded. Huge oil canisters went flying around the rig, smashing into everything.

BP news: BP was just fined a record $87 million for failing to comply with required safety repairs imposed by OSHA after the deaths of 15 people at BP's Texas City refinery in 2005. BP says they will appeal.
[www.guardian.co.uk]

Sierra Club has just reported there's a SECOND RIG leaking oil into the gulf.
It's about 10 miles off the gulf coast. We don't yet know who owns it or how much oil is leaking.

Today, BP claims they siphoned off 15,000 barrels of oil over the last 24 hours. That's good, because for the last several days, they've reported a daily increase in the amount of oil siphoned off.

But it really begs the question: "how much oil is still leaking off that pipe into the ocean every day?"

CNN says the 15,000 barrels account for somewhere between 1/3 and 3/4 of the total flow. (A few days ago, BP was saying that 6,000 barrels accounted for 30% of the total flow!?!).

If 15,000 barrels really is 1/3 of the flow, that means there's still 30,000 barrels oil flowing into the ocean everyday. If 15,000 barrels is 3/4 of the flow, then it's 5,000 barrels/day flowing into the ocean.

There's at least a couple of reasons why the difference in numbers adds up to a big huge difference for the environment and for BP: If BP is successful in giving the impression that they're collecting a large quantity of the leaking oil, it's possible that public interest could wane, resulting in a less expensive - and less thorough - response by BP, plus less stringent regulations down the road. Also, BP could be fined by the barrel.

So far, estimates come from "expert" panels that are observing the quantity of oil at the surface (12,000 - 19,000 total) and at the underwater site of the leak (up to 25,000 total). Those estimates came before the (possibly 20%) increase in flow caused by cutting the pipe.

It's complicated, but given enough information, there's an equation that could be used to get a more reliable estimate of the flow rate (gpm) of oil coming out of the pipe.

Using the equation requires knowing the length of the pipe, pipe roughness, details of all "local loss components" (valves, elbows, tees, unions...), altitude changes, and fluid properties (density and dynamic viscosity).

[answers.yahoo.com]

It seems like BP should have all that information. Is it "proprietary" information that isn't required to be shared with US government engineers? What?

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Tamukha ()
Date: June 09, 2010 12:52PM

Latest report is that the top kill of mud was suspended prematurely(remember how they said it would take a couple of days to see if it was working and them inexplicably stopped it half a day later?)because a severe pressure irregularity was detected under the ocean floor[in the actually pipe to the deposit]. This means that the top kill could have resulted in a rupture under the sea bed, and that this is now leaking oil into the substrate. If relief wells aren't completed in time to stabilize pressure, this could mean seepage, or worse, up through the ocean's floor.

BP is has not formally released this information, as of last night. At this point, I reiterate my hope to see BP banned from our land and shores permanently. They are the devil.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 09, 2010 05:07PM

Part of the frustration is seeing the oil still gushing out even as the cap collects more each day.

"NEW ORLEANS -- As officials reported a gradual increase in the amount of oil being captured from a spewing wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, BP PLC said it plans to replace the cap collecting the crude with a slightly bigger device next month.

"The newer cap will "provide a better, tighter fit" than the current one collecting roughly one-third to three-fourths of the oil gushing daily from the sea floor, company spokesman Robert Wine told The Associated Press.

"The oil began spewing forth after a BP oil rig explosion April 20 and recently increased after officials cut the pipe carrying the flow as part of the latest containment effort.

"BP believes the bigger cap will fit over more of the outflow pipe than the current cap, Wine said, but the change will allow the oil now being collected to again spew out into the Gulf during the changeover.

"Wine acknowledged the frustration people must have when they look at the video feeds from undersea that show a lot of oil still flowing into the sea.

"We want to capture every drop of oil that is still leaking," he said."

[blog.al.com]

..that's what I want to hear, that they want to collect every last drop while uncertain they will ever be able to shut down this well. Someone said BP may have made a "significant find". Large oil fields can produce for 20 years.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Tamukha ()
Date: June 09, 2010 09:12PM

loeve,

I think they are playing pea and walnut shells with those caps to buy time for the relief wells. If there was some sort of rupture below the seabed caused by the top kill, the more thoroughly capped the BOP is, the greater the pressure destabilization under the sea bed at the rupture site/sites would become. They apparently cannot deal with the geyser in the ocean and random geysers spewing out of the sea bed, should that occur. And if there's even a way to capture oil from "oil lava fissures" in the ocean's crust. I stop and read our posts on this, and I just think, "This cannot be happening . . . this cannot be happening . . . "

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 10, 2010 05:12AM

Thanks loeve for your explanation of why we can't really get an accurate accounting of the oil flow. I guess after this kind of explosion, there's no telling about the condition of the pipe.

And thanks for the link to the nytimes article. It's a relief that the article appears to confirm the story I heard. I was worried that the prior leaks may not have been reported to investigators. After all, why were these guys in Hawaii on vacation instead of on the Mainland, answering investigators' questions? Who paid for their trip?

It's really scary that BP allowed a casing to be used that "violated the company’s safety policies and design standards." How could such knuckleheads have the power to hold our fragile environment in their hands?

Jeez Tamukha, I just hope and pray the oil won't be seeping from the ocean bed.

I've heard that if the casing is ruptured, the relief wells will take care of it. I hope so! If not, that truly would be the worst case scenario.

...Unless of course we happen to believe a certain public servant of the state of Mississippi who recently said, "We have had a few tar balls but we have tar balls every year as a natural product of the Gulf of Mexico. 250,000 to 750,000 barrels of oil seep into the Gulf of Mexico through the floor every year" [newsbusters.org]

Reminds me of the mayor in "Jaws".

Today my major freakout about the whole thing is the number of injured wildlife brought in during the last 24 hours: five times the total number of all the days previously. Is that right? Did anyone else read/hear that?

Here's an interesting article about "Dead Zones" in the sea, that could be created by the BP disaster:

[www.newsinferno.com]

Please, oh please, let BP be right when they say we'll only have a "trickle" of oil coming out when they attach their new cap.

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 11, 2010 02:40AM

This is from an article today in the Washington Post:

"Pick a number: 12,600 barrels . . . 20,000 . . . 21,500 . . . 25,000 . . . 30,000 . . . 40,000 . . . 50,000. Scientists put every one of those numbers in play Thursday as they struggled to come up with a solid estimate of how much oil is gushing each day from the black geyser at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

"...One team that has studied video of the leaking riser pipe before it was cut and capped last week has concluded that the well was most likely producing between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels a day. If that estimate is on target, and if the flow has been more or less consistent since the April 20 blowout, the hydrocarbon reservoir 2 1/2 miles below the sea floor has gushed five to six times the amount spilled in Alaskan waters in 1989 by the Exxon Valdez.

"Put it another way: It's roughly one Valdez spill every week.

"...A team led by scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution has studied the leak with instruments normally used in research on deep-sea hydrothermal vents. Its initial estimate puts the flow at 25,000 to 50,000 barrels a day, said U.S. Geological Survey director Marcia McNutt, who leads the teams of scientists collectively known as the Flow Rate Technical Group.

"...Most of the research findings released Thursday were based on study of the leak prior to the riser cut.

"Once the riser was cut, said Steve Wereley at Purdue University, "the flow must go up," because the oil is no longer suppressed by a kink in the pipe. The government has estimated that the riser cut could have increased the flow by 20 percent.

"...More numbers are coming. The plume team and other members of the flow rate group are preparing another estimate, this one based in part on high-definition video taken by submersibles after the riser was cut and provided to the scientists on Tuesday."

[www.washingtonpost.com]

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Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Tamukha ()
Date: June 11, 2010 10:35AM

An AP analysis from yesterday's Detroit Free Press:


Quote

BP’s spill response plans found filled with errors

Officials making it up as they go along, analysis says



By JUSTIN PRITCHARD, TAMARA LUSH and HOLBROOK MOHR

ASSOCIATED PRESS

VENICE, La. — Professor Peter Lutz is listed in BP’s 2009 response plan for a Gulf of Mexico oil spill as a national wildlife expert. He died in 2005.

Under the heading “sensi­tive biological resources,” the plan lists marine mammals in­cluding walruses, sea otters, sea lions and seals. None lives anywhere near the gulf.

The names and phone num­bers of several Texas A&M University marine life special­ists are wrong.

So are the numbers for ma­rine mammal stranding net­work offices in Louisiana and Florida, which are no longer in service.

BP’s 582-page regional spill plan for the gulf, and its 52­page, site-specific plan for the Deepwater Horizon rig are rid­dled with omissions and glar­ing errors, based on an Associ­ated Press analysis that details how BP officials have pretty much been making it up as they go along.

The lengthy plans approved by the federal government last year before BP drilled its ill­fated well vastly understate the dangers posed by an un­controlled leak and vastly overstate the company’s pre­paredness to deal with one.

Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, said in an e-mail Wednesday that he and Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., have asked for a criminal investiga­tion of some of BP’s claims.

Worst case: Being ill-prepared

In its Deepwater Horizon plan, the British oil giant stat­ed: “BP Exploration and Pro­duction Inc. has the capability to respond, to the maximum extent practicable, to a worst case discharge, or a substan­tial threat of such a discharge, resulting from the activities proposed in our Exploration Plan.”

In the spill scenarios de­tailed in the documents, fish, marine mammals and birds es­cape serious harm; beaches re­main pristine; water quality is only a temporary problem. And those are the projections for a leak about 10 times worse than what has been calculated for the ongoing disaster.

There are other wildly false assumptions in the documents.

| BP’s proposed method to cal­culate spill volume judging by the darkness of the oil sheen is way off. The internationally ac­cepted formula would produce estimates 100 times higher.

| The gulf’s loop current, which is projected to help eventually send oil hundreds of miles around Florida’s south­ern tip and up the Atlantic coast, isn’t mentioned in either plan.

| The Web site listed for Ma­rine Spill Response Corp. — one of two firms that BP relies on for equipment to clean a spill — links to a defunct Japa­nese- language page.

And although BP officials and the federal government have insisted they have at­tacked the problem as if it were a much larger spill, that isn’t apparent from the constantly evolving nature of the re­sponse.

Examples of how BP’s plans have fallen short:

BEACHES WHERE OIL WASHED

up within weeks of a spill were supposed to be safe from con­tamination because BP prom­ised it could marshal more than enough boats to scoop up all the oil before any deepwater spill could reach shore — a claim that in retrospect seems absurd.

BP asserts that the com­bined response could skim, suck up or otherwise remove 20 million gallons of oil each day from the water. But that is about how much has leaked in the past six weeks — and the slick now covers about 3,300 square miles, according to Hans Graber, director of the University of Miami’s satellite sensing facility.

Only a fraction of the spill has been successfully skimmed.

REGARDING WILDLIFE — birds, sea turtles or endangered ma­rine mammals, BP’s site plan also has proved too optimistic. Although the exact toll on the gulf’s wildlife may never be known, the effects clearly have been devastating.

PERHAPS THE STARKEST ex­ample of BP’s planning fail­ures: The company has insist­ed that the size of the leak doesn’t matter because it has been reacting to a worst-case scenario all along.

Yet each step of the way, as the estimated size of the daily leak has grown from 42,000 gallons to 210,000 gallons to perhaps 1.8 million gallons, BP has been forced to scramble — to create potential solutions on the fly, to add more boats, more boom, more skimmers, more workers. And contain­ment domes, top kills, top hats.

Missing the obvious

Although a disaster as dev­astating as a major oil spill will create some problems that can’t be solved in advance, or even foreseen, BP’s plans do not anticipate even the most obvious issues, and use moun­tains of words to dismiss prob­lems that have proven over­whelming.

In responses to lengthy lists of questions from AP, officials for BP and the Interior Depart­ment, which oversees oil rig regulator Minerals Manage­ment Service, appear to con­cede there were problems with the two response plans.

“Many of the questions you raise are exactly those ques­tions that will be examined and answered by the presidential commission as well as other in­vestigations into BP’s oil spill,” said Kendra Barkoff, spokes­woman for Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. She added that Salazar has undertaken trans­formational reforms of MMS.

Said BP spokesman Daren Beaudo of Robert, La.: “We ex­pect that a complete review of the regional response plans and planning process will take place as part of the overall in­cident investigation so that we can determine what worked well and what needs improve­ment.

“Thus far, we have imple­mented the largest spill re­sponse in history and many, many elements of it have worked well. However, we are greatly disappointed that oil has made landfall and impact­ed shorelines and marshes. The situation we are dealing with is clearly complex, un­precedented and will offer us much to learn from.”

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 11, 2010 11:35AM

Tamukha Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> loeve,
>
> I think they are playing pea and walnut shells
> with those caps to buy time for the relief wells.
> If there was some sort of rupture below the seabed
> caused by the top kill, the more thoroughly capped
> the BOP is, the greater the pressure
> destabilization under the sea bed at the rupture
> site/sites would become. They apparently cannot
> deal with the geyser in the ocean and random
> geysers spewing out of the sea bed, should that
> occur. And if there's even a way to capture oil
> from "oil lava fissures" in the ocean's crust. I
> stop and read our posts on this, and I just think,
> "This cannot be happening . . . this cannot be
> happening . . . "

That's one of my concerns also that the "surface" well casing that the BOP is bolted down to might have been marginally cemented into the well bore bedrock --


[search.aol.com]

Someone said if the oil starts erupting around the outside of the surface casing it would be a problem, to say the least.

Then there's the "production" casing and any intermedeate casing which telescopes two miles down thru unstable sediment formations which have to be cemented in place to withstand the pressures of the drilling mud acting outwards and the earth acting inwards --

"In the planning stages of a well a drilling engineer, usually with input from geologists and others, will pick strategic depths at which the hole will need to be cased in order for drilling to reach the desired total depth. This decision is often based on subsurface data such as formation pressures, strengths, and makeup, and is balanced against the cost objectives and desired drilling strategy.

"With the casing set depths determined, hole sizes and casing sizes must follow. The hole drilled for each casing string must be large enough to easily fit the casing inside it, allowing room for cement between the outside of the casing and the hole. Also, the inside diameter of the first casing string must be large enough to fit the second bit that will continue drilling. Thus, each casing string will have a subsequently smaller diameter.

"The inside diameter of the final casing string (or penultimate one in some instances of a liner completion) must accommodate the production tubing and associated hardware such as packers, gas lift mandrels and subsurface safety valves.

"Casing design for each size is done by calculating the worst condition that may be faced during drilling and production. Mechanical properties of designed pipes such as collapse resistance, burst pressure, and tensile strength must be sufficient for the worst conditions.

"Casing strings are supported by casing hangers that are set in the wellhead, which later will be topped with the Christmas tree. The wellhead usually is installed on top of the first casing string after it has been cemented in place."
[en.wikipedia.org])



Hopefully, this BOP is securely cemented in bedrock. I haven't heard any credible source dispute that it is, though I have to wonder considering BP's pressure testing of the BOP at only 6,500 psi and footdragging in getting this thing shut down tight.

At one time BP said it could install a second BOP on top of the failed one and shut it down that way. I don't know why they don't do this...



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/11/2010 11:49AM by loeve.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: Curator ()
Date: June 11, 2010 11:49AM

I just cant even let myself think about this...hiding from the reality of the situation might not be healthy, but I cant help but cry whenever I let my mind dwell on this issue for to long...

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: suncloud ()
Date: June 11, 2010 08:12PM

Curator, I think it's a good step forward that you're saying this. Your feelings are much respected. Imagine if you didn't care! I think some people unfortunately don't.

Maybe most of us were hiding from the reality before this disaster, and that's why it happened.

Two things we can all do now are: keep our own consumption low, and prioritize support for policies that protect our environment.

If most of us aren't able to do those two things, then for sure, there won't be any hiding in the future. I believe it will catch up with us all.

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: BP/oil consumption - Bash here!
Posted by: loeve ()
Date: June 11, 2010 09:38PM

suncloud Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is from an article today in the Washington
> Post:
>
> "Pick a number: 12,600 barrels . . . 20,000 . . .
> 21,500 . . . 25,000 . . . 30,000 . . . 40,000 . .
> . 50,000. Scientists put every one of those
> numbers in play Thursday as they struggled to come
> up with a solid estimate of how much oil is
> gushing each day from the black geyser at the
> bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
>
> "...One team that has studied video of the leaking
> riser pipe before it was cut and capped last week
> has concluded that the well was most likely
> producing between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels a day.
> If that estimate is on target, and if the flow has
> been more or less consistent since the April 20
> blowout, the hydrocarbon reservoir 2 1/2 miles
> below the sea floor has gushed five to six times
> the amount spilled in Alaskan waters in 1989 by
> the Exxon Valdez.
>
> "Put it another way: It's roughly one Valdez spill
> every week.
> ...

Suncloud,

Thank you. I feel bad about all the wildlife affected also, the images of oil soaked birds and marsh lands very sad, and the thought of oil settling into reefs and unseen places a shame.

I read somewhere that if the BOP has failed utterly and is wide open that the flow rate is about 50,000 barrels a day. If true, that could be fairly estimated using standard values for pressure, oil viscosity, smoothness of pipe etc as you listed previously, IMO. That might turn out to be the case. What's bothering me today is reading they could be capturing 8,000? more barrels/day right now if they had a tanker to load the oil onto. BP waited to see how the cap worked before calling for a larger tanker, which is now on its way finally from the North Sea due to arrive in the gulf in a few days.

Remember the Kuwait war when Saddam Hussein ordered the oil fields destroyed? [www.iiainc.net] Petroleum engineers and demolition experts wired explosives to the well casings beneith many BOPs and 182 "christmas trees" were destroyed in this way leaving gushers coming up from mangled well casing. They were all fixed in a little over a year. I suppose that took an international effort. Maybe that's what we need here.

I think they should revisit clamping on a second working BOP, shut the well off and be done with it. It's hard to believe the well casing and failed BOP are so fragile that they can't stand up to the pressure of a complete shut down. The initial cementing of well casing into bedrock sounds like the simplest and most secure of tasks that would be hard to botch.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/11/2010 09:43PM by loeve.

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